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Kass: Ignorance Is Bliss

By Doug Kass

About this article:
This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Nov. 12 at 8:15 a.m. EST. The message of the markets over the past few weeks is that, with increased certainty, investors are growing more comfortable with the forecast of a smooth and self-sustaining economic recovery in 2010 and beyond. Many now have even adopted the view that the current cycle is the start of a normal multiyear recovery that could resemble the average 45-month expansionary phases that have typically followed a recession. The previous consensus forecast of a shallow recovery has now been displaced by a far more optimistic projection. Aggressive fixed and variable corporate cost cuts (and the productivity gains and margin expansion that follow) are now being seen as providing the underpinning to a leveraged and positive impact on 2010 corporate profits. Next year's S&P 500 earnings forecasts are now moving toward $80 a share...

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