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Commodity Markets Rely on a Weaker Dollar

By Jim Wyckoff

About this article:
In recent weeks, gold futures have produced an all-time record high above $1,000 an ounce, crude oil futures pushed above $80 a barrel for a fresh 12-month high, and other commodity futures markets have established fresh multimonth or multiyear highs. Meantime, the value of the U.S. dollar against the other major currencies has eroded to a 14-month low. This divergent trading relationship between the U.S. currency and the commodity futures markets has become the paramount factor in market price action recently. In fact, many commodity markets at present are focusing more on how the U.S. dollar index is performing on a daily basis than on their own individual supply and demand fundamentals. The U.S. dollar index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback via a composite index price. Importantly, as long as the U.S. dollar index continues to trend lower (as it has been...

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