
Homebuilding ETFs Are Still No Place to Be

By Don Dion
About this article:
The extension and expansion of the homebuyer tax credit will do little or nothing to boost the sagging fortunes of the homebuilder-exposed ETFs such as iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction, SPDR Homebuilders and PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction, though it may benefit banks.
Over the past three months, these ETFs have underperformed the S&P 500 index, which was up 9.9% through yesterday's close. By comparison, ITB lost 4.1%, XHB added 0.1%, and PKB slid 0.7%
As the Calculated Risk blog has pointed out in helpful graphical form, the ratio between existing- and new-home sales was fairly consistently in a range from about 5 to 7, between 1994 and 2007.
After the bubble popped, new-home sales dropped faster than existing-home sales, and the ratio has expanded to nearly 14.
The gap can be closed by a rise in new-home sales or a drop in...

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