
Top Picks for a Year-End Rally

By Alan Farley
About this article:
Positive year-end seasonality will kick into gear shortly and last through the middle of December. This beneficial period should lift the year's top performers and put a floor under fourth-quarter laggards. The dichotomy favors tech, big caps and commodity-related issues, with banks, small caps and biotech stocks bringing up the rear.
The theory behind this annual impulse is simple enough to understand. Money managers have had a good year, but most of them are still trailing the major averages. The next month will give them a golden opportunity to tidy up year-end results so that it looks like they made all the right moves in 2009. This protects their bonuses and keeps investors happy.
The four- to five-week period corresponds with the interval between November expiration and December triple-witching expiration. This natural lift was once called the "Santa Rally," but there's been a shift backward in this decade,...

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