
The Oil Triangle, Gold and Dollar Weakness

By Marco Hague
About this article:
The U.S. dollar index has broken through the major 75.00 support zone over the past few sessions, which puts the 74.00 target area in play. The lower U.S. dollar price action against the majors in trade this week has been driven by a higher stock market and, to some degree, commodity trade that seems to be more concerned with long gold in response to a weaker dollar than it does a fear of inflation.
There is no real evidence of heavy inflationary pressure to match the tone set by those calling for inflation-backed gold trades. Since March 2009, the gold market has added around 20%, compared with the 50-60% moves that equities have made. If anything, the natural balance of equities trading lower as gold trades higher would be expected if the inflation-based outlook were in play.
When real inflationary pressure hit during the 1970s, gold...

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