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Watching the Volatile Shippers

By Michael McDonough

About this article:
As the earnings season continues to help guide U.S. equity markets, I want to highlight the consensus forecasts for earnings for the companies contained within my Dry Bulk Shipping Index (DBSI). As you can see from the chart below, volatility in the shipping sector has been very apparent, as measured by the DBSI. One-month volatility peaked at 26.5 in December 2008 but has since moderated and has begun to trend down since April 2009, while the DBSI's performance has generally trended up. Volatility and the Shippers Source: McDonough calculations and Bloomberg. During the third quarter, rates remain relatively robust for smaller ships, while rates for capesize vessels faltered toward because of reduced activity in iron ore trade. But relatively robust grain and coal shipments helped buoy supramax and handysize rates -- and panamax rates...

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