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ORCL Preview: Estimates Are at Risk

By Gary Dvorchak

About this article:
The Street is looking for earnings of 34 cents per share on $5.8 billion in sales when Oracle reports after the close tonight, but it seems increasingly possible that those numbers are at risk. Companies selling $25 billion a year in anything depend on large deals ($1 million-plus) to accumulate that level of sales, and big-ticket capital expenses are always the first items to be reviewed when companies tighten their belts. Software is doubly at risk, because it doesn't wear out like physical capex; you can always get by with your existing systems for one more quarter, especially when your own business is not growing at the moment. A number of analysts are reporting that their Oracle channel checks show some application deals being deferred, but the surprise might be weakness in database/middleware as well. The huge dollar rally does not help either, as a majority...

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